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<title>Requisite Variety</title>
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  <title>Sowing heterogeneity</title>
  <dc:creator>Scott Carter</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Linda Chang</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Andrew Taber</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Laura Libby</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/sowing-heterogeneity/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p>Before a road is built there is only a landscape of infinite decisions. It takes teams of experts to map, image, and graph each possible route. Even when feasible routes are chosen, there are sensitive ecologies, costs, and property lines to navigate. Each route must be assessed on a variety of metrics before a final route is staked and the “real” work can finally begin.</p>
<p>In this way, road building can be seen as an example of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration%E2%80%93exploitation_dilemma">explore-exploit tradeoff</a>: an enormous amount of work goes into “exploring” the best route among a wide set of possibilities before the road is laid down and “exploited” by motorists.</p>
<p><img src="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/sowing-heterogeneity/sowing-heterogeneity.jpg" class="img-fluid" alt="A road through Monument Valley branches into glowing routes labeled with cities around the world."></p>
<p>The same tradeoff exists for building any complex system. In user-centered design, exploration often takes the shape of needfinding, technological probes, and low- and high-fidelity prototyping. This extensive exploration work is necessary given the effort involved in producing and deploying systems that meet user needs, scale, and offer the flexibility necessary to adapt over time.</p>
<p>Furthermore, when these systems need to adapt to different deployment scenarios, designing and building their configuration mechanisms can be challenging.</p>
<p><em>AI coding agents upend these assumptions.</em> Now, trying out a new variation is as straightforward as launching a new agentic process that can branch and rebuild a codebase, and this can be done in parallel with other tasks. This means that not only can we now test functional prototype/systems in real world contexts, we can potentially also deploy a larger variety (one might say, a requisite variety) of solutions. Our tooling can now approximate the heterogeneity of the field.</p>
<p>Increased maintenance is a potential pitfall. More on that later. For now, let us consider a few examples of how agentic coding has changed the way we think about developing research systems.</p>
<section id="research-applications-as-patterns" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="research-applications-as-patterns">Research applications as patterns</h2>
<p>Research applications are designed with exploration in mind. In HCAI, we use applications to probe the world to help us understand how different well-understood behavioral mechanisms play out in situ.</p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/toyotaresearch/storybook-a-platform-for-sharing-perspectives-part-i-f6e13142f6b2">Storybook</a> is one such application. Storybook uses generative AI to transform user stories into illustrated narratives with consistent character representation. People describe themselves and their situation in their own words, design a personalized avatar, and produce a visual story that advice givers then read and respond to. The system can be tuned for different deployments via a human-legible configuration file. Researchers can control dozens of aspects of the system, including how avatars are created, what AI models are used, how stories are structured, the types of responses that are allowed, etc. To create a new deployment, researchers modified an extensive configuration file and enabled a new route on an existing installation of Storybook, or cloned the code and launched their own installation from scratch. This configuration method was well established, but limited the tunable components to those that the developers had enabled.</p>
<p>Like so much that has changed since the fall of 2025, our approach to launching Storybook deployments completely shifted. Now, rather than a relatively stable code base with parameterized deployments, the codebase and deployment configuration files serve as ingredients to an agentic coding system. A researcher baking a new Storybook deployment mixes the old coding patterns with their new requirements as well as guidelines to incorporate the latest third-party models and techniques. The result is an outcome designed specifically for their use case.</p>
</section>
<section id="experience-sampling-becomes-a-feature" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="experience-sampling-becomes-a-feature">Experience Sampling becomes a feature</h2>
<p>Two EV charging research systems built by HCAI researchers can also help illustrate the impact of agentic coding.</p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/toyotaresearch/chargeminder-82074ba8b5f7">ChargeMinder</a> is a full research application for changing plug-in behavior among electrified vehicle owners. It gives drivers charging reminders, goals, streaks, feedback about their charging and driving behavior, and educational content. It also uses Smartcar, an API for connected vehicles, to observe driving and charging-related vehicle state. Because the intervention lives inside the app, researchers can control the surrounding experience: what the driver sees, when the prompt appears, what feedback follows, and how the behavior is represented over time.</p>
<p>Another project focused on vehicle-to-grid (V2G) participation. V2G systems depend on drivers making their cars available to the grid at useful times. In this project, researchers investigated whether people would choose to participate in V2G, and if so for how long and at what price.</p>
<p>The system used to run the V2G study leveraged <a href="https://samply.js.org/">Samply</a>, an open-source experience-sampling platform with a researcher-facing server and a participant-facing mobile app. Samply let the team send prompts to participants in the field without building a full V2G application. Those prompts were combined with Smartcar, which exposed vehicle state and charging control, Qualtrics surveys, and backend services that linked participants, vehicles, prompts, and payments.</p>
<p>Rather than build a polished V2G app, the team in this case assembled a field system from other tools: Samply for experience-sampling, Smartcar for vehicle state and charging control, and Qualtrics for surveys. Backend services linked participants, vehicles, prompts, and payments.</p>
<p>These systems were two sides of a tradeoff between building a complete functional system versus using pre-existing tooling that required little building. ChargeMinder is a coherent system, but it requires the researchers to do everything that comes with building and deploying a bespoke app: design and development, QA testing, code reviews, configuring deployment infrastructures, etc. The V2G setup leveraged third-party tools and was therefore faster–most of the build and deployment concerns were already complete, but it had a less tailored participant experience. One treated the intervention as part of a product. The other treated the intervention as a field probe.</p>
<p>Agentic coding offers a way to reject this tradeoff by converting field assessment methodologies into a feature. Once bespoke research apps can be generated and revised quickly, ESM does not need to remain outside the system. Diary prompts, event-contingent questions, check-ins, follow-ups, and post-hoc surveys can be built directly into the deployment.</p>
<p>The ability to tailor applications to meet not only the needs of users but also researchers on a per deployment basis has the potential to revolutionize field research. Small research teams can now build systems specifically tailored to the study at hand: polished enough to make the intervention real, flexible enough to keep learning from the field.</p>
<p>One caveat is that agents are strongest where training data is plentiful, such as web frontends and Python services, versus where it is relatively sparse, such as iOS Swift. The agentic advantage is lower for projects with complex requirements, such as protecting participant data or running unattended for months. Generating a variant is cheap; <em>verifying</em> one is still human work.</p>
</section>
<section id="maintenance" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="maintenance">Maintenance</h2>
<p>The obvious cost of variance is maintenance. If every deployment becomes its own codebase, researchers inherit a family of systems rather than one system with many settings.</p>
<p>One answer is to rely on increasingly capable agents to handle maintenance work directly: updating dependencies, running migrations, and keeping related deployments in sync.</p>
<p>But another answer is that the road metaphor may not fit. A road is built for permanence. Many research systems are not. They may need to exist only long enough to answer a question, reveal a failure case, support a field study, or suggest a path to tech transfer. Others may branch into a family of related systems, each adapted to a different site, population, or intervention.</p>
<p>Agentic coding is a paradigm shift for knowledge work. Perhaps it is not surprising that it should also challenge our intuitions about research methodologies, systems, and contributions.</p>
<hr>
<p>The title is a nod to an earlier <a href="https://www.madpickle.net/scott/pubs/2025-33502-001.pdf">HCAI paper</a>.</p>


</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>agents</category>
  <category>methods</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/sowing-heterogeneity/</guid>
  <pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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<item>
  <title>Towards “A New and Perhaps More Human Outlook” (video)</title>
  <dc:creator>Kate Sieck</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-new-and-perhaps-more-human-outlook/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p>This is a talk I gave at the Universidad de las Américas Puebla on 3 September 2026, for the Ciclo de conferencias “El impacto contemporáneo de la antropología”. In it, I talk about systems and scope and “differences that make a difference.” Specifically, my argument is that many of the failures we attribute to people or technologies are actually failures of a system’s scope. Systems cause strain to people because they cannot see, interpret or act upon the differences that matter. I took us back to a moment in history when anthropologists and cognitive scientists and early computer scientists were collaborating toward a new field of complex system dynamics. I speculated on what it could have meant for the development of AI had this collaboration held, and why the paths diverged. And I shared the opportunity Toyota has created for my team to tackle this. These are early efforts, but we hope that in sharing them, we can expand the conversation, expand the interest and grow the research.</p>
<p>Use the tabs above the video to jump to each part of the talk: complex systems, cybernetics and AI, a TRI research platform called HIRO, and the closing Q&amp;A.</p>
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<p><span class="keynote-credit">Video: TVUDLAP.</span></p>



 ]]></description>
  <category>talks</category>
  <category>cybernetics</category>
  <category>human-ai-interaction</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-new-and-perhaps-more-human-outlook/</guid>
  <pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-new-and-perhaps-more-human-outlook/signal-scope.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>A blue point of view</title>
  <dc:creator>Scott Carter</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-blue-point-of-view/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p>A couple nights ago I made the unfortunate mistake of reading about <a href="https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/the-blue-eyed-islanders-puzzle">The Blue Eyed Islanders puzzle</a> (though I am fond of <a href="https://xkcd.com/blue_eyes.html">this less violent version</a>). It kept me up all night. I understood some of the logic but there was one point in particular that I couldn't work out. It got to the point where the problem was threatening to sink me into blathering madness the rest of the next day, and since it was in fact a lovely weekend, that just wouldn’t do. I finally bit the bullet and worked through my concerns with Claude (Opus 4.7) and then went on a lovely bike/run.</p>
<p>I suggest that before reading this post any further you pause to read at least the basic formulation of the problem. I will insert the art for this essay here to mask spoilers below.</p>
<p><img src="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-blue-point-of-view/hero.png" class="img-fluid" alt="Editorial illustration of islanders viewed through nested translucent frames, with branching sightlines and a distant visitor surrounded by a soft ripple of light"></p>
<p><span class="hero-attribution">Image generated by GPT Image 2, 2026.</span></p>
<p>Welcome back. (I hope it has been minutes or at least hours rather than days.)</p>
<p>For me, the induction steps that led to the solution were not the main challenge. Rather I was having difficulty understanding the part played by the visitor’s faux pas. One of Tao's <a href="https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/the-blue-eyed-islanders-puzzle/comment-page-3/#comment-25801">comments</a> I found particularly vexing:</p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>It is probably the n=3 case (three blue-eyed people) which causes the first major conceptual difficulty, in which common knowledge separates from both first-order and second-order knowledge. As pointed out above, in this case the three blue-eyed people all know that there is at least one blue-eyed person, and they know that everyone else knows this also… but they don’t know that everyone else knows that everyone else knows this, until the foreigner speaks.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For the n=3 case, if everyone knows that everyone knows that there is at least one person with blue eyes, then why does anything change when an external person says that out loud?</p>
<p>Perhaps this was more evident to you than me, but this is the part that took me working with Claude to understand. This is also where we find connections to HCAI and cybernetics in the guise of perspective-taking, or rather, chains of perspective-takings.</p>
<p>Remember before we dive in that individuals leave the island if people can be <em>sure</em> of their own eye color.</p>
<p>Now then, let's say Alex, Bob, and Candice all have blue eyes. We will be Alex. As Alex, we do not know our eye color but we do see that Bob and Candice have blue eyes, so we know that the proposition, "at least one person has blue eyes" (call this proposition P) is true. Now as Alex we project ourselves into Bob. Alex-reasoning-as-Bob looks at Alex and sees...fog. That's because we are Alex projecting into Bob and so we only have Alex's knowledge about the world, and Alex does not know his own eye color. Now let’s start exploring branching possibilities. Let's pick for now the possible branch in which Alex-reasoning-as-Bob sees Alex as having brown eyes. We'll call this version of Bob Bob-Alex/brown. Still, we know that Bob-Alex/brown will see Candice as having blue eyes (because Alex knows this for a fact!), so he also agrees with P. Now we go one step further and project from Bob-Alex/brown to Candice. Bob-Alex/brown has the same problem as Alex—he cannot know his own eye color—and again here we choose the brown eye branch. Therefore now we are Candice-Bob/brown-Alex/brown. That is, we are now Alex projecting himself into a version of Bob that sees Alex as having brown eyes and who is projecting himself into a version of Candice who sees Bob as having brown eyes. From Candice-Bob/brown-Alex/brown’s perspective, Alex and Bob both have brown eyes: those are the choices we've made on this branch, and crucially, <em>choices we cannot rule out</em>. But Candice of course doesn't know her own eye color. So then Candice-Bob/brown-Alex/brown has to assume it is <em>possible</em> that she, and thus everyone, has brown eyes, and therefore in this particular branch of the tree of perspective-taking possibilities, P is not true! This branch is in fact the bulwark that stops the group from starting the chain of inductive steps that leads to the blue eyed folks having certainty of their own eye color (and thus leaving the island). But as soon as an outsider verifies that at least one person has blue eyes, all possible brown-brown-brown branches disappear in a poof.</p>
<p><em>Phew.</em></p>
<section id="from-perspective-taking-to-agent-design" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="from-perspective-taking-to-agent-design">From perspective-taking to agent design</h2>
<p>There are many places we could go from here. This chain-of-perspectives reasoning of course derives from <a href="https://iep.utm.edu/theomind/">Theory of Mind</a>. This cognitive capacity is usually associated with mechanisms that act to prevent egocentrism and promote empathy and better communication (though it can have less prosocial impacts as well, which Liu Cixin famously explores with the concept of “chains-of-suspicion” in his book <a href="https://archive.org/details/darkforest0000liuc_k8z9">The Dark Forest</a>).</p>
<p>But what struck me most about this problem and the ensuing logic of its solution was the unreality of both the mise en scene, the relentless perspective hopping, and the ruthless adherence to logic over common sense. Humans would likely not follow a many-hopped logic but instead dismiss concerns as soon as it became common sense to do so (e.g., once it was clear that everyone knows that there are blue eyed people, folks would shrug and move on with their lives). They would also (unless they are literally imprisoned) be unlikely to act exclusively as lone agents: they would share information (even if told not to do so, they would find a black market method).</p>
<p>This led me to worry that agents in AI system design may be as similarly "alien" in their thought processes as the islanders. And while we probably <em>do</em> want agents to use this kind of ruthless inhuman logic in some cases, we <em>also</em> want them to be properly empathetic with humans and understand that they are likely <em>not</em> to do so. We may also want them to share information rather than hoard it.</p>
<p>When he derived the <a href="https://ia600706.us.archive.org/31/items/brain-of-the-firm-reclaimed-v-1/Brain%20of%20the%20Firm%20-%20Stafford%20Beer.pdf">Viable System Model (VSM)</a>, Stafford Beer recognized that recursive coordination requires recursive viability: each subsystem must itself be a viable system, with its own regulators and feedback loops. He was explicit that the VSM is not a command hierarchy but a recursive containment structure with bidirectional flows, control distributed across levels rather than concentrated at the top. This model stands in contrast to the way that many agentic systems are designed now: a rather rigid hierarchy in which an orchestrator manages sub-agents. We might instead envision architectures that give agents more agency at each level of control, and include shared spaces to push information up, down, and across the agent graph. This mechanism would also allow agents to regularly update their shared understanding of the peculiarities of the people or communities they are modeling or interacting with.</p>
<p>This is the space stigmergic blackboard architectures are exploring (the term stigmergy comes from biology: the study of how individual agents [e.g., ants] modify their environment with traces to coordinate with other agents). <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01285">Salemi et al.&nbsp;(2025)</a> take aim at the master-slave paradigm in current agent frameworks in which subordinate agents are forced to execute instructions from a coordinator even when they hold better information, and a central controller required to maintain accurate models of every agent's capabilities, which is rarely realistic when agents have only partial or shifting knowledge. Their alternative is to have the coordinator post a request on a shared blackboard, with agents self-selecting based on what they can contribute. They report improvements of 13–57% on their data discovery benchmarks over orchestrator baselines.</p>
<p><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01701">Han and Zhang (2025)</a> generalize the pattern, building a control unit, a blackboard split into public and private spaces, and a roster of agents with roles like planner, decider, critic, cleaner, and conflict-resolver, all communicating through the shared workspace. Gao et al.’s <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28655">AutoScientists</a> agents are related but more decentralized, interpreting a shared experimental state, self-organizing into teams around promising hypotheses, critiquing proposals, and running experiments while sharing both successes and failures so the system as a whole avoids redundant exploration. Similarly, the open-source <a href="https://github.com/AdviceNXT/sbp">Stigmergic Blackboard Protocol (SBP)</a> is a coordination mechanism for AI agents that work together with two layers: ephemeral "pheromones" that decay over time, and durable traces that persist as institutional memory. A related line of work on reflective modeling, in which agents watch other agents (see <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.16334">Wang et al.&nbsp;2024</a> and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00829">Storf et al.&nbsp;2026</a>), fits alongside the shared blackboard pattern since a shared workspace gives these monitoring agents something to watch.</p>
</section>
<section id="takeaway" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="takeaway">Takeaway</h2>
<p>Stigmergic blackboard architectures show how we can leverage some of the ways humans coordinate to design systems that have more regulatory feedback, share more knowledge to deepen understanding, and ultimately help agents act in a way that is overall more humane.</p>
<p>That said, I do think the main takeaway of this article is: never read logic puzzles when you are trying to go to sleep.</p>


</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>human-ai-interaction</category>
  <category>agents</category>
  <category>cybernetics</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-blue-point-of-view/</guid>
  <pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/a-blue-point-of-view/hero.png" medium="image" type="image/png" height="81" width="144"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>Requisite Variety: The How</title>
  <dc:creator>Scott Carter</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/requisite-variety-the-how/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p>We’ve <a href="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/welcome/">explained the <em>why</em></a> of Requisite Variety. This post focuses on the <em>how</em>.</p>
<p>Requisite Variety is a GitHub repository. It is built on <a href="https://quarto.org/">Quarto</a> and manifests as a static site hosted through GitHub Pages. We’ve created Claude and Codex skills that allow researchers to turn source material (e.g., blog posts, papers, “Iotas” entries, or other site updates) into live web pages or elements. For posts, we’ve developed skills that automatically assess legal implications as well as potential communication issues or opportunities for improvement (one of our skills explicitly pushes human-written posts through <a href="https://www.pangram.com/">Pangram</a> to provide some confidence that the post is, in fact, human written!).</p>
<p>Users do not need to know much about Quarto to contribute. Our skills handle layout and design as well as GitHub mechanics. This allows users to focus on the content to be published, what source material it is based on, and who should review it.</p>
<p>Our skills also help users optionally install a local server so that they can preview how content looks before sending it along for comms and legal review. AI reviewer agents perform an initial screen for legal and communication issues, and human experts review flagged and sensitive material before anything goes live.</p>
<section id="ai-reporter" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="ai-reporter">AI Reporter</h2>
<div class="post-update" aria-label="AI Reporter update">
<p><time datetime="2026-09-28T06:54:53-07:00">Updated September 28, 2026 · 6:54 a.m. PDT</time></p>
<p>The AI Reporter has been taken offline while TRI evaluates its policy on AI-assisted writing.</p>
</div>
<p>If Requisite Variety only hosted written content, we could’ve used a third-party platform like Substack. But we want this site to be a <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/229868.230044">“conversation with materials”</a>, where the material here is web-based interactive technology. As such, we firmly believe that <em>variety</em> means variety of <em>media</em>. After all, if the medium is the message, and our goal is variety, then it stands to reason that we need a variety of media!</p>
<p>We deliver this variety through a set of agents that run regularly to update the site. One such agent is <a href="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/ai-posts.html">AI Reporter</a>, which every week gathers candidate research material from configured sources, chooses a human-AI topic, writes a short article or Jupyter Notebook-style post, creates supporting media when needed, and formats the result as a Quarto page.</p>
<p>Importantly, the AI Reporter makes its own decisions about what to write or build. It also cycles through different models to use to do the writing or code building. Variety at every turn!</p>
<p>We are not convinced that the pieces AI Reporter produces will always be good (in fact, we suspect the hit rate to be pretty low), but its posts will give us insight into how well different LLMs can choose topics, build arguments, and communicate a point-of-view.</p>
</section>
<section id="ai-artist" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="ai-artist">AI Artist</h2>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>“I think of art, at its most significant, as a DEW line, a Distant Early Warning system that can always be relied on to tell the old culture what is beginning to happen to it.”</p>
<p>— M. McLuhan</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>“Art is how a culture feels the future before it can explain it.”</p>
<p>— Codex 5.5 extra high</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/why-ai-isnt-going-to-make-art">Ted Chiang says that AI isn’t going to make art</a>. AI Artist puts that thesis to the test.</p>
<p>AI Artist is an agent that generates a new piece of dynamic web art on a daily cadence. It reads a creative guideline, asks an LLM to produce a self-contained HTML/JS artwork, archives the result by date, and updates the current published artwork. The agent can select from a variety of tools to generate art, including different LLMs and selected media creation models available through platforms such as <a href="https://fal.ai">fal.ai</a>. Its harness prompts it to consider different styles of art. It also explicitly tries to combine conventions and styles or generate entirely novel styles on its own. (It creates pieces in a portrait orientation so that they can be shown on a display in the TRI lab space with a similar orientation.)</p>
<p>The agent also keeps track of what it has made in the past so that it doesn’t get repetitive. Human curators regularly push particularly impressive creations to a Hall of Fame list; each Wednesday the AI Artist serves up a Hall of Fame entry, advancing one slot through the list each week, rather than creating a new piece.</p>
<p><img src="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/requisite-variety-the-how/artagent-mosaic.jpg" class="img-fluid" alt="Four screenshots of AI Artist Hall of Fame artworks, side by side. Left to right: a pop art halftone collage of speech bubbles in yellow, red, and cyan; mirrored teal and violet neon arcs over vertical light streaks and soft wave bands on black; a colorful grid of notched tiles framing terracotta and blue shells holding pale beads; and a lone squid lit from above in a dark underwater cavern. Each screenshot carries its creation date."></p>
<p><span class="hero-attribution">Artworks generated by AI Artist and selected by human curators for the Hall of Fame.</span></p>
<p>In his piece, Chiang writes that, “An artist—whether working digitally or with paint—implicitly makes far more decisions during the process of making a painting than would fit into a text prompt of a few hundred words.” We agree, which is why the “text prompt” is only a small aspect of AI Artist: the agent also reasons through stylistic choices and experiments with dynamic DOM elements, video, image editing, and other media.</p>
<p>Another common critique of AI-based creative tools is that they replace work that humans would have done, de-skilling people and reducing their agency. But that critique is zero sum and not relevant: The fact that AI Reporter creates a new post does not prevent humans from writing their own posts (like this one!). AI Artist is on even stronger ground here: no one in our group (indeed, very few people ever) has been doing this kind of experimentation with dynamic, web-based art.</p>
</section>
<section id="ai-critics" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="ai-critics">AI Critics</h2>
<p><a href="https://sketchplanations.com/what-gets-measured-gets-better">What gets measured gets better!</a> Separate AI critics evaluate both AI Reporter and AI Artist and write feedback to files that both agents read when creating new content. Look for clickable scales of justice (⚖️) icons to see the critic’s feedback. Of course, measurement <a href="https://sketchplanations.substack.com/p/the-mcnamara-fallacy">has its problems</a>, so the agents take the critics’ feedback with a grain of salt.</p>
</section>
<section id="benchmarking-tool" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="benchmarking-tool">Benchmarking Tool</h2>
<div class="post-update" aria-label="Benchmark update">
<p><time datetime="2026-09-28T06:54:53-07:00">Updated September 28, 2026 · 6:54 a.m. PDT</time></p>
<p>We are still developing Diplomacy, but we have released benchmarks on a related set of <a href="../../benchmarks/repeated-games/index.html">behavioral games</a>.</p>
</div>
<p>Model benchmarks are vital information for any user-facing system builder. They also guide model development.</p>
<p>Our AI benchmarking tool is another independent agent. It gathers publicly available results from regularly updated benchmark leaderboards that researchers on our team have found relevant to human-centered concerns. The tool normalizes the top results into a shared format, merges new results with the previous data, and writes the updated benchmark data file back into the Requisite Variety repo.</p>
<p>So far, all benchmarks are third-party, but we are hard at work building our own benchmarks to better understand how best to integrate AI into our workaday tasks.</p>
<p>The first of these will be a Diplomacy benchmark. Diplomacy is a game of strategy and negotiation. It is often used in studies of human behavior to study bounded rationality, cognitive limitations under time pressure, and trust dynamics. Diplomacy rewards negotiation and alliance-building as much as tactics, which makes it a way to observe <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36413172/">agent behavior</a>. We plan to score several capabilities, including strategy, social inference, negotiation, coordination, resilience, and execution, from replayed critical game states, and to publish the formula, uncertainty, and source evidence behind every number. Look for this and other benchmarks in the coming months!</p>


</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>agents</category>
  <category>methods</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/requisite-variety-the-how/</guid>
  <pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/requisite-variety-the-how/artagent-mosaic.jpg" medium="image" type="image/jpeg"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>From white box to black box</title>
  <dc:creator>Scott Carter</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/from-white-box-to-black-box/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p><em>AI systems are increasingly opaque. But opacity is not unusual in mature technology. Cars, phones, doors, computers, and infrastructure all become useful by hiding their internal mechanisms behind interaction affordances. Cybernetics asks what kind of oversight architecture can make AI black boxes governable.</em></p>
<p><img src="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/from-white-box-to-black-box/hero.png" class="img-fluid" alt="Three cubes arranged left to right: a white cube with a visible gear mechanism, a translucent gray cube with a more complex mechanism, and a sealed black cube."></p>
<p><span class="hero-attribution">Image generated by GPT Image 2, 2026.</span></p>
<p>In a <a href="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/black-box-then-and-now/">previous post</a>, I argued that contemporary AI systems are best treated the way Ashby treated any sufficiently complex system: block boxes to be regulated from the outside rather than explained from the inside. That argument depends on a premise: that it is normal, even expected, for a mature technology to be opaque to its users. This post addresses that premise.</p>
<section id="ais-move-from-white-box-to-black-box" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="ais-move-from-white-box-to-black-box">AI’s move from white box to black box</h2>
<p>The history of AI is usually told as a move from symbolic systems to machine learning. Work in the mid-20th century predominantly focused on symbolic, rule-based systems connected to knowledge bases. Systems tended to leverage decision trees or other logic-based algorithms that were relatively straightforward and therefore easy to inspect. This made them, and the decisions they supported, inherently transparent. Of course it also made them useful only for very narrow problems.</p>
<p>The shift to statistical machine learning in the late-20th century, characterized by regression models, Bayesian networks, SVMs, small neural networks, etc., made AI systems less inspectable. Still, model results could be made interpretable by, for example, exposing a relatively small set of feature weights, coefficients, or conditional probabilities using methods that were relatively easy for end users to understand and, in some cases, tweak themselves (<a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/1943403.1943451">Carter et al., 2011</a>). The rise of deep learning led to the explainable AI techniques discussed in a <a href="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/black-box-then-and-now/">previous post</a>. However, SHAP, LIME, and their variants barely kept pace with the models they were meant to explain. A parallel effort focused on interpretable-by-design models (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-019-0048-x">Rudin, 2019</a>), but those approaches have remained uncompetitive with frontier systems.</p>
<p>All of these efforts were made moot in November 2022 with OpenAI’s release of ChatGPT. Transformer-based AI architectures were introduced in 2017 (<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762">Vaswani et al., 2017</a>), but until this moment their long-term utility was unclear. Now they exceed all previous expectations for the intelligence of AI systems, making past gold-standard tests like the Turing test seem quaint. The cost of this great leap forward was any hope of conveying to end users the complete mechanics behind a particular result. Even experts struggle to understand how the systems work. Indeed, most research is advanced by trying a wide range of ideas and determining which is best purely through experimentation (<a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/838169388/Uday-Kamath-Kevin-Keenan-Garrett-Somers-Sarah-Sorenson-Large-Language-Models-a-Deep-Dive-Springer-2024">Kamath et al., 2024</a>).</p>
<p>This would sound familiar to Ashby, Walter, and other cyberneticians. But it would also sound familiar to UX professionals.</p>
</section>
<section id="abstraction-as-design" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="abstraction-as-design">Abstraction as design</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://dl.icdst.org/pdfs/files4/4bb8d08a9b309df7d86e62ec4056ceef.pdf">The Design of Everyday Things</a>, Don Norman makes the point that usable products often hide their functional mechanisms. A door handle is a black box not because its designer failed but because a user who had to think about the latch mechanism could never simply walk through the door (because, to borrow from Heidegger, it would make the latch present-at-hand),. Abstraction is not a luxury of mature design; it is a requirement for functional systems. The designer’s job is to choose which level of abstraction the user will operate at, and to make that level legible through affordances and feedback. What lies beneath is, out of necessity, sealed off.</p>
<p>The cybernetic black box is a description of what the system looks like from the outside; the UX black box explains why a good designer puts it there. The user experience of the black box is a deliberate, and necessary, abstraction.</p>
<p>All sufficiently complex products follow a similar trajectory. Early-20th-century cars were operated through levers, rods, and cables directly connected to the subsystems they controlled. Driving was, in a literal sense, mechanical: the user’s hands and feet were coupled to the machinery, and the machinery’s behavior was revealed through its use. Over the following century, layer after layer of mediation accumulated, from hydraulics to electronics, embedded software, sensor fusion, driver-assist, and now full autonomy. The modern driver operates a car almost entirely through abstractions, expressing intent and supervisory control with essentially no real knowledge of how the underlying subsystems work. The car has gone from white to black, passing through every shade of gray along the way. Phones, computers, and consumer electronics generally have done the same.</p>
<p>AI has gone through a particularly fast instance of the same pattern. In thirty years it has moved from inspectable rule systems to functionally unreachable transformer architectures. While the speed with which this has happened is surprising, the fact that it has happened is not surprising at all.</p>
</section>
<section id="accountability-after-opacity" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="accountability-after-opacity">Accountability after opacity</h2>
<p>This raises a question: if AI is following the same trajectory as every other complex technology, why does it provoke special anxiety? In one sense, it doesn’t: technological progression regularly <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/history-did-you-know/moral-and-medical-panic-over-bicycles">produces panic</a>. But the specific concern with AI is that it influences decisions that put human lives at risk. Even that, though, can’t be the whole story; everyday life is saturated with consequential risk. <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/injuries-and-violence">Injuries and violence account for roughly 4.4 million deaths</a> worldwide each year, and the technologies that produce them are also black boxes to their users. In fact, we built regulatory regimes around those technologies <em>because</em> they are black-boxed: crash standards, recall mechanisms, mandatory recorders, licensing, liability frameworks. Opacity did not exempt these technologies from accountability.</p>
<p>The pattern is already repeating. New York’s <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-signs-nation-leading-legislation-require-ai-frameworks-ai-frontier-models">RAISE Act</a> (signed in 2025) built on California’s SB 53 and helped establish an early U.S. state reporting and safety regime for frontier model developers. The US administration’s <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/16/2025-23092/ensuring-a-national-policy-framework-for-artificial-intelligence">EO 14365</a> (signed in December 2025) is designed to preempt a patchwork of state laws under a federal framework. As of this writing, the administration is negotiating a further executive order establishing a voluntary 90-day federal security review of frontier models before public release, a kind of pre-market evaluation process familiar to the pharmaceutical and aviation industries.</p>
<p>Here cybernetics and UX converge: if AI systems cannot be made transparent, then they must be wrapped in the controls appropriate to opacity: monitoring, intervention, redundancy, and feedback. This could be, <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/melanie-mitchell">as Melanie Mitchell has argued</a>, a job for experimental tools that evaluate model behavior rather than dashboards that attempt to summarize it. It is also, as the regulatory record makes clear, a job that institutions tend to figure out the hard way, over decades, after the technology has already gone black.</p>
<p>We should expect AI to continue down this regulatory pathway. The gray box is not a stable category, but rather a phase every technology passes through on its way to becoming infrastructure. The goal shouldn’t be to try to force the black box back open, but rather to build the requisite regulatory and operational architecture around it.</p>


</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>cybernetics</category>
  <category>ai-safety</category>
  <category>design</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/from-white-box-to-black-box/</guid>
  <pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/from-white-box-to-black-box/hero.png" medium="image" type="image/png" height="76" width="144"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>Black Box, Then and Now</title>
  <dc:creator>Scott Carter</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/black-box-then-and-now/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p><em>For a decade, the standard response to AI opacity has been to try to peer inside the black box. But frontier models are now opaque even to their builders, and explainability is hitting a ceiling. What if instead of trying to explain how the box works, system builders instead focus on designing control architectures that make opacity tolerable?</em></p>
<p><img src="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/black-box-then-and-now/hero_1.png" class="img-fluid" alt="Hero image for Black Box, Then and Now."></p>
<p><span class="hero-attribution">Image generated by GPT Image 2, 2026.</span></p>
<blockquote class="blockquote">
<p>Black Box theory is, however, even wider in application than these professional studies. The child who tries to open a door has to manipulate the handle (the input) so as to produce the desired movement at the latch (the output); and he has to learn how to control the one by the other without being able to see the internal mechanism that links them. In our daily lives we are confronted at every turn with systems whose internal mechanisms are not fully open to inspection, and which must be treated by the methods appropriate to the Black Box.</p>
<p>— Ashby, <a href="https://ashby.info/Ashby-Introduction-to-Cybernetics.pdf"><em>An Introduction to Cybernetics</em></a>, p.&nbsp;86</p>
</blockquote>
<section id="explainability-and-its-limits" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="explainability-and-its-limits">Explainability and its limits</h2>
<p>In contemporary AI discourse, a “black box” refers to deep models with many hidden layers where inputs and outputs are known, but the internal decision-making is hidden, making the models hard to audit and hard to trust. Explainable AI (known as XAI, not to be confused with the AI company “xAI”) offers techniques, such as <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.04938">LIME (Ribeiro et al., 2016)</a> and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07874">SHAP (Lundberg and Lee, 2017)</a>, to peek inside these boxes, revealing why a decision was made. These techniques are perceived as crucial for fairness, debugging, and compliance, especially in high-stakes areas like medicine or finance, even though explainability sometimes comes at the cost of peak performance. For example, a SHAP analysis might show how much each input feature (e.g., salary, credit score) contributes to a prediction (e.g., likelihood of repayment of a loan); and a LIME analysis might approximate aspects of a more complex model with simpler, more interpretable one (e.g., a linear regression model).</p>
<p>But this focus on explainability has begun to hit structural limits. Modern models keep growing in complexity, exceeding the reach of any post hoc rationale, while models with built-in interpretability (<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-019-0048-x">Rudin, 2019</a>) are increasingly uncompetitive with state-of-the-art models. Meanwhile, most modern AI innovation is concentrated in commercial labs that are increasingly unforthcoming about the inner workings of their models (<a href="https://hai.stanford.edu/news/transparency-in-ai-is-on-the-decline">Stanford HAI Index</a>). On the other hand, many chat systems that interact with foundation models now include “reasoning traces” feedback meant to help the user have some understanding of the tools, lines of thought, web pages, etc., that the system uses in deriving a response to a user prompt. However, this feedback typically amounts to short, rapidly cycling phrases that provide only the most cursory information about the true set of executions under-the-hood.</p>
</section>
<section id="a-new-kind-of-black-box" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="a-new-kind-of-black-box">A new kind of black box</h2>
<p>From a cybernetics perspective, the effort to fully explain these systems was always going to hit a ceiling. Arguably around 2023-24, frontier AI models crossed a threshold: they became classic black boxes, not just to their users, but in important respects to their builders. This is a stronger claim than Ashby’s. The door handle is opaque to the child but transparent to the engineer who made it; a frontier model can be opaque to everyone at once. After all, who can explain precisely how their phone, car, laptop, monitor, watch, etc., works, much less the far more complex and interacting systems that govern everyday infrastructure that supports the banal cadence of everyday life (e.g., power and water procurement and distribution)? Concerns focused on the inner workings of those systems are important, but only to the extent to which they impact relevant external (and monitorable) systems.</p>
<p>At first blush, this stance could appear worrisomely indifferent. What if, for example, these systems, executing some unknown algorithm, act in ways that are inappropriate when given some new input? In fact the cybernetic stance demands more caution, not less. Precisely because these systems are never going to be fully knowable from the inside, they must always be embedded in architectures of control from the outside. There must always be a regulatory system in place that mediates between a system’s outputs and the others it interfaces with.</p>
<p>This is, in fact, the direction production AI is already moving. Serious deployments rarely expose a single model directly to users. Instead, they nest models inside one another: a narrowly-scoped classifier polices the output of a more capable generator; a separate model checks for policy violations before anything reaches the interface; logs and rate-limits sit outside the whole stack. None of these guardrails require understanding why the underlying model produced what it produced. They only require monitoring what it produced and intervening when needed.</p>
</section>
<section id="a-complement-to-xai" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="a-complement-to-xai">A complement to XAI</h2>
<p>This is the cybernetic complement to the XAI program. The goal of XAI is to make the box transparent enough to trust. Cybernetics instead focuses on a regulator around the box so that its opacity doesn’t matter.</p>
<p>The irony may be that designers who give up on explanation will feel the need to build systems with more regulatory controls. When you cannot inspect the engine, you add instrumentation and sensors, design in redundancies, improve logging and feedback, etc. You define acceptable outputs <em>and</em> enforce them.</p>
<p>In the end, presuming less control may force better overall accountability.</p>


</section>

 ]]></description>
  <category>cybernetics</category>
  <category>interpretability</category>
  <category>ai-safety</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/black-box-then-and-now/</guid>
  <pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
  <media:content url="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/black-box-then-and-now/hero_1.png" medium="image" type="image/png" height="144" width="144"/>
</item>
<item>
  <title>Welcome to Requisite Variety</title>
  <dc:creator>Kate Sieck</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Scott Carter</dc:creator>
  <link>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/welcome/</link>
  <description><![CDATA[ 




<p>Welcome to Requisite Variety, a space for essays, research notes, and experiments from TRI’s human-centered research community.</p>
<p><img src="https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/welcome/hero.png" class="img-fluid" alt="Hero image for the Requisite Variety launch announcement."></p>
<p><span class="hero-attribution">Image generated by GPT Image 2, 2026.</span></p>
<p>TRI launched the Human-Centered AI Division (HCAI) in 2020 to study and build AI-based systems that augment human capabilities. Known originally as Machine Assisted Cognition (MAC), the team’s mandate focused initially on bringing behavioral science and machine learning to bear on understanding and building decision support systems. The group included experts in causal modeling, human-AI interaction, psychology, and machine learning who worked together to combine theories of human behavior with modeling to develop actionable guidelines, algorithms, systems, and design patterns for an emerging frontier of new human-machine technologies.</p>
<p>Following a rebrand as HCAI in 2021, our remit blossomed to incorporate a wider spectrum of human-machine interactions, including sociotechnical systems, economic models, agents, product design, virtual and augmented reality, behavioral interventions and modeling, and more. That broader remit naturally fits TRI’s approach to research. As an industrial research lab, TRI seeks to carry out use-inspired basic research. This means, first, that our work is meant to push forward the boundaries of knowledge and understanding. To that end, our work explores the <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/psycarticles/2025-33502-001.pdf">frontiers of behavioral science</a>, <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3491102.3517791">human-computer interaction</a>, and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.17376">machine learning</a>. But real-world impact is our lodestar. Our work has informed a diverse array of work and everyday activities, from <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3582269.3615596">design exploration</a>, to everyday <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2025/12/16/video-drivers-struggle-to-multitask-when-using-dashboard-touch-screens-study-finds/">driving</a> and <a href="https://medium.com/toyotaresearch/behavioral-science-can-unlock-more-carbon-reductions-from-electric-vehicles-82074ba8b5f7">charging</a> behaviors, evaluating <a href="https://medium.com/toyotaresearch/storybook-a-platform-for-sharing-perspectives-part-i-f6e13142f6b2">career decisions</a>, and more.</p>
<p>However, as successful as we have been, the academic publication model is no longer sufficient to meet the moment. We are now at an inflection point in the history of knowledge work. The great debates of our time are happening at a tempo that requires a new means of engagement.</p>
<p>In a recent Substack post (<a href="https://davidoks.blog/p/how-citations-ruined-science">How citations ruined science</a>), David Oks writes: “…I suspect that we’ll have to fundamentally rethink the institutions of scientific life for the age of strong AI. Perhaps, as AI makes it possible to do much more science much more quickly, the culture of science will become more like the culture of engineering—faster, more collaborative, less interested in priority claims. In such a world, the most efficient unit of scientific contribution might be a living document, perhaps even just a GitHub repo: something with data, code, analysis, and a thin narrative layer that AI scientists could read, regenerate, or update as needed.”</p>
<p>This platform is our response to the dynamism of this moment.</p>
<p>We will use this platform to generate essays, research briefs (including abstracts of our work that appear in other publication venues), interactive pieces, human-centered model dashboards, and other content. One specific thread of work will focus on cybernetics: an old concept that we believe has new relevance in a world awash with AI agents, dizzyingly complex systems, and rapid changes. Our first essay will focus on the relevance of cybernetics to contemporary AI discourse. Other pieces in that thread will include discussions on agents and agency, double-binds in contemporary organizations, requisite variety (the eponym of the platform), and further discussions on decision theory. Beyond cybernetics, we also plan to publish reactions to key human-AI debates, pieces that explore how AI is changing how we live and work, and artistic and exploratory pieces.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://ia801705.us.archive.org/4/items/Various_PDFs/NeilPostman-AmusingOurselvesToDeath.pdf"><em>Amusing Ourselves to Death</em></a>, Neil Postman wrote with prescience, “as [Aldous Huxley] saw it, people will come to…adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think.” This is a tenuous moment in human history in which it would be all too easy to let the machines fly our minds by wire. This platform is our call to push back, lean in, and engage.</p>
<p>Please join us!</p>



 ]]></description>
  <category>announcements</category>
  <guid>https://variety.hcai.tri.global/posts/welcome/</guid>
  <pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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